American threat & Bangladesh

The bilateral relations between the United States and Bangladesh hold immense significance in various areas such as economy, climate, humanitarian efforts, and security. As we commemorate the 50th anniversary of U.S.-Bangladesh relations in 2022, both nations engaged in numerous high-level discussions and strategic meetings in Dhaka and Washington D.C., with the aim of strengthening cooperation in areas including bilateral trade, economic growth, security, and commerce. These interactions also emphasized the importance of promoting security measures, upholding human rights, reinforcing the rule of law, safeguarding freedom of expression, and fostering a shared vision of an Indo-Pacific region that is inclusive, prosperous, peaceful, and resilient.

The United States seeks to establish a robust and diverse relationship with Bangladesh, based on mutual respect for democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Key areas of focus include inclusive economic growth, development, people-to-people connections, climate change mitigation, pandemic response, and contributing to regional security.

U.S. assistance to Bangladesh has played a vital role in improving the lives of its people over the past 50 years. With an investment exceeding eight billion dollars, Bangladesh stands as the largest recipient of U.S. aid in Asia. This support has been instrumental in various sectors, including sustainable agriculture, enhanced food security, modernization of small-scale farming, trade facilitation, climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, public health improvement, education enhancement, disaster preparedness and response, and the promotion of democratic institutions, including labor rights and freedom of assembly.

The United States deeply appreciates Bangladesh's generosity in providing refuge to nearly one million Rohingya refugees who fled from genocide and crimes against humanity in Burma. The resilience and compassion demonstrated by the people of Bangladesh in hosting the Rohingya refugees are commendable. As the largest donor to the Rohingya refugee crisis response, the United States continues to extend humanitarian assistance to both the refugees and the host communities in Bangladesh. We stand united with Bangladesh and the Rohingya community in their efforts towards a safe, voluntary, dignified, and sustainable return of the refugees, once conditions permit.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States and Bangladesh have collaborated closely to combat the virus. Bangladesh has been one of the prominent recipients of U.S.-donated COVID-19 vaccines through COVAX. Additionally, since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, the United States has donated over $121 million in life-saving COVID-19-related assistance to Bangladesh.

Bilateral economic relations have been a source of pride and collaboration between the United States and Bangladesh. Over the past 50 years, Bangladesh's economy has transitioned from primarily agrarian to a potential major participant in global supply chains. Its impressive growth and openness to U.S. private sector investment have created opportunities for U.S. firms and those of our allies and partners. Bangladesh's economy has sustained an annual growth rate of over 6 percent for the past two decades. As the largest importer of Bangladeshi products, the United States imported $8.3 billion worth of goods in 2021. U.S. companies have become the leading foreign investors in Bangladesh, with the United States being the top source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2021. U.S. firms have invested $4.3 billion, constituting 20 percent of the total FDI stock in Bangladesh. These investments primarily focus on natural gas extraction, banking and insurance, and power generation sectors. Furthermore, U.S. companies contribute to the transportation and infrastructure sectors by providing high-quality airplanes, locomotives, power generation turbines, and dredging equipment. The establishment of the U.S.-Bangladesh Business Council in 2021 further exemplifies the growing commercial ties between the two countries.

The recent announcement of the new US visa policy for Bangladeshi citizens on May 24, 2023, has sparked significant discussions and debates within Bangladesh and has garnered attention from international media. While the policy's intention appears clear, there are concerns surrounding its implementation and effectiveness in safeguarding Bangladesh's democratic institutions and freedom of expression.

Many individuals are curious about the policy's execution and whether it will be followed by more stringent measures, considering it follows earlier actions such as sanctions on the country's elite force and its officials.

What does the new policy entail? The primary objective of the new visa policy is to support fair elections in Bangladesh and aid those striving to restore the democratic system. The upcoming election is scheduled for January 2024. According to this policy, the United States reserves the right to deny visas to individuals who obstruct the electoral process in Bangladesh.

The policy explicitly outlines actions that will be considered as "obstructions" to the electoral process. These include vote rigging, voter intimidation, the use of violence to hinder people from exercising their rights to freedom of association and peaceful assembly, and measures aimed at preventing political parties, voters, civil society, or the media from expressing their views. The policy covers a range of individuals, including current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of both pro-government and opposition political parties, and individuals associated with law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller and US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu have clarified that this policy is not solely applicable to the government and its supporters but also extends to the opposition. Furthermore, as per Lu's statement, the restrictions will also apply to those who issue orders.

Implications While the policy announcement does not explicitly target the government, it unequivocally challenges Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's assertion that an environment conducive to a free and fair election prevails in the country. This preemptive action is not punitive in nature, but the policy's broad scope serves as a warning to all individuals involved in the electoral process.

The comprehensive nature of the policy indicates that Washington aims to maintain fairness between the ruling regime and the opposition. However, it also reflects the growing frustration within Washington regarding governance in Bangladesh.

Ignored Warnings US concerns about the deteriorating human rights situation and democratic regression in Bangladesh are not recent developments. In December 2021, the United States took punitive actions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), an elite police force, and seven current and former officials. Additionally, Bangladesh was not invited to two Democracy Summits held in December 2021 and March 2023. These measures were followed by repeated calls and warnings from the US establishment regarding the state of political affairs in Bangladesh. In April 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed Bangladesh's Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen that the world is closely observing Bangladesh's upcoming election. In February 2023, US State Department Counselor Derek Chollet stated that the erosion of democracy, including in Bangladesh, hinders Washington's ability to cooperate with such countries. During her visit to Dhaka in March 2022, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland underscored the significance of democracy in the bilateral relationship. The United States also insisted on RAB reform as a precondition for lifting the sanctions.

Regrettably, these calls and warnings went unheeded by the Bangladeshi government, which continues to disregard US pressure and display defiance. Anti-American populist rhetoric has emerged in response to these calls, with Prime Minister Hasina's son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, referring to the US State Department as a "bunch of hypocrites," and Hasina herself accusing the United States of attempting.

What prompted these developments?

There are several factors that have prompted the recent developments in the US visa policy towards Bangladesh. These factors can be categorized into domestic and geopolitical considerations.

Domestic Factors:

Growing Authoritarianism: The Hasina regime's increasing authoritarian tendencies, such as obstructing peaceful opposition rallies and persecuting opposition leaders, have raised concerns about the state of democracy in Bangladesh. The government has been criticized for using draconian laws like the Digital Security Act and proposing restrictive laws like the Data Protection Act, which could negatively impact US investment and businesses in the country.

Concerns about Election Integrity: The 2018 election in Bangladesh was criticized for being unfree and unfair, with international media describing it as "transparently fraudulent." The government's indifference towards addressing opposition concerns and ensuring an inclusive election has raised doubts about the upcoming election's integrity.

Civil Administration Bias: There have been allegations of bias within the civil administration during local elections, where ruling party candidates were allegedly favored over opposition candidates. This has further fueled concerns about the fairness of the electoral process.

Geopolitical Considerations:

Competition with China: The United States is increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific region due to heightened competition with China. As Bangladesh has joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and expanded its cooperation with Beijing, there are concerns in Washington about China's growing influence in Bangladesh. The US's emphasis on promoting democracy in Bangladesh can be seen as a response to China's assertive posture in the region.

Chinese Influence: China's deepening engagement with Bangladesh, including high-level visits by Chinese officials and Bangladesh's consideration of joining China's Global Development Initiative, has raised eyebrows in Washington. The expectation of China that Bangladesh should not align closely with the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue demonstrates the geopolitical tensions at play.

Will it work?

While imposing visa restrictions has been used as a tool to punish those undermining democratic processes in other countries, its effectiveness in achieving the desired outcomes has been limited in the past. The timing of the visa restrictions, seven months ahead of the election in Bangladesh, allows for proactive measures rather than reactive ones, which could be seen as a positive step.

However, there are challenges in terms of how the US embassy in Dhaka will sort and decide which cases to follow up and investigate, considering the complexity of the task. Despite these challenges, the announcement of the visa restrictions has already created pressure on individuals connected to the government who have aspirations to visit the United States or have family members residing there. This pressure is likely to be felt among Bangladesh's political and economic elites.

Looking ahead

While the US visa restrictions alone may not guarantee a free and fair election or restore democracy in Bangladesh, they serve as a strong message to both Dhaka and US allies about Washington's perspective on the trajectory of Bangladeshi politics. It signals a willingness to take action. However, achieving the desired goals of a free and inclusive election and a return to the democratic path will require a concerted international effort, as well as the engagement of Bangladeshi citizens demanding a neutral administration.

Manchester, UK (18.06.23)